Why BoE is Expected to Ease and ECB is Not
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Both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will be making monetary policy announcements on Thursday. The market expects the ECB to remain on hold and BoE to increase their asset purchase program by GBP 50 billion. A quick look at the following tables explain why the BoE is expected to ease and the ECB is not. Since the last monetary policy meeting, Eurozone economic data was neutral / mixed to bullish. U.K. data on the other hand was neutral / mixed to bearish.
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Aussie Retails Sales Falls
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Australian retail sales unexpectedly declined in December, the first drop in six months, as consumers spent less at grocers and on dining out in an economy where employment growth stalled last year.
Sales slipped 0.1 percent from a month earlier, when they rose a revised 0.1 percent, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. The result compares with the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 26 economists for a 0.2 percent gain.
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NFP no license to apply risk
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Analysts’ employment expectations were blown out of the water on Friday. NFP produced a stellar report, creating +243k new jobs, pushing the unemployment rate down two ticks to +8.3%. Risk has been quickly applied and added to in the markets. The loonie is a shining example of a growth currency outperforming, especially on the back of its own disappointing employment report. However, beware of the extremely bearish risk factors lurking in the background i.e Euro debt crisis, slowing global growth and Iran nuclear concerns, which remain largely ignored, before wagering it all on risk.
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Borrowing of Money Falls
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The Euro’s price has dropped considerably in relation to the U.S. dollar over the last three months. The surplus cash held by European banks has helped a little bit, but the debt crisis has overshadowed this. Prices have dropped from 1.42 EUR/USD down to 1.28 over the last three months, showing the world just how precarious the debt crisis is. Meanwhile, banks are fighting to keep the Euro’s levels as high as possible in order to encourage more borrowing. It is estimated that the amount of cash on hand for these banks will be higher this year than levels were last year.
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How To Predict 5 Day Trends (With Updated Performance Results)
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A while ago I posted a link to a video that Bill Poulos created which revealed how his trade alert software was able to detect (and profit from) 5 day trends for the major currency pairs. (...)
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CNBC Video: My Outlook for Euro
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Here’s a clip from my CNBC Asia Guest Hosting slot last night. We talked about the EU Summit and my outlook plus levels for EUR
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The IG Index Insight Feature - A Useful Tool Or Not?
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If you have an account with IG Index, you may well have noticed that they have just created a new research tool called Insight. (...)
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Euro Recedes To 40 Pips Range
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Euro recedes to 40 pips range amid low volatility. The euro has seen a bearish week as it emerge from last Friday’s stalemate with London. With investors looking for safe haven in other currencies like the dollar and sterling, most traders could say they saw it coming. As the euro has fallen into the range market, could this be a sign of a selling cool-off?
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US Dollar and Market Conditions
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The United States’ dollar continued to fall again on Wednesday, February 01, 2012, in relation to the Euro, the British pound, and the Japanese yen. The Euro was the biggest mover, going up about 0.60 percent in relation to the dollar. This marked the latest in a choppy week where the EUR/USD has see-sawed back and forth between 1.305 and 1.320. At the time of this writing, the EUR/USD stood at 1.3167.
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CNBC - Talking Seasonality and Outlook for EUR
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I was on CNBC Squawk on the Street with Carl, Melissa and Simon this morning talking about my outlook for the euro and seasonality. Here’s the clip:
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Japanese Yen Gains Against the US Dollar
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Yen higher in forex trading
Japanese yen is gaining against the US dollar in forex trading today, heading higher as concerns about the US economy persist. Even though there is some good news coming out of the States, the yen is gaining right now.
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Fed’s Near-Zero Interest Rate Policy a Failure?
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The world’s largest central banks continue to follow a low interest rate policy first implemented to deal with the 2008 recession. The argument for adopting the record-low rate was that deep cuts to the lending rate would help ensure sufficient liquidity within the financial system and encourage spending and growth promotion.
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Central Bankers Weaken Their Currencies, Boost Gold
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By Sam Mattera
Benzinga Guest Writer
Since the turn of the year, nearly every asset class has been on a tremendous bull run.
Precious metals in particular have benefited, as gold and silver have rallied back from their recent lows. Gone are calls for a “gold bubble”. Gold has risen in price throughout January and now sits near $1745 per ounce. Silver has gained as well, and is currently approaching $34 per ounce.
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