EU Debt Crisis Continues to Fuel Risk Aversion
Source: ForexYard EU Debt Crisis Continues to Fuel Risk Aversion
The euro-zone debt crisis continued to fuel risk aversion in the market place yesterday, as poor news briefly brought the EUR/USD pair below the 1.3100 level. The pair staged a recovery later in the European session, after it was revealed that Greek leaders had begun finalizing a debt swap deal. Today, traders will want to continue monitoring the euro-zone situation, especially as it is becoming clear that Portugal will soon need a bailout to avoid defaulting on its debt.
The Grind Higher Continues….For Now
As you all know I have had a bearish tone since mid-January.
The market had moved into a short-term overbought state, excessive optimism had pushed into the market and seasonality had entered a historically bearish.
And over the past several weeks all of the aforementioned have pushed further and further into a bearish state.
But, the bulls have [...]
The Great Monetary Debate
Gary’s Note: What is the connection between monetary policy, the falling dollar and hope? Jeffrey Tucker explains below in today’s feature article.
When National Public Radio airs a segment on the gold standard, you know that the debate over the quality of money has reached the point where it can no longer be ignored. Another sign came last month when Newt Gingrich, who has never shown the slightest interest in the cause of sound money, suddenly began to talk about restoring the gold standard.
Tuesday 7atSeven: self-sustaining sentiment
Here are seven (or so) links at 7AM Eastern. We will see you later with the daily linkfest. Good luck out there.
Another indication of extreme investor bullish sentiment. (Dynamic Hedge)
Pay attention when some long lagging sectors perk up. (chessNwine)
Simple Steps to a Better Retirement Plan
In a couple days, I’ll be heading down to Orlando to attend the 2012 World MoneyShow.
I always enjoy my time at this annual event because it gives me a chance to interact with other investors on a more personal level. I get to hear what they’re thinking about … to discuss the investments they’re using … and to talk more about the challenges and opportunities that they’re facing.
For the third year in a row, I’ll also be sharing some of my big-picture ideas, strategies, and investing ideas in a special workshop.
Puplava: listen to what the markets are saying
While catching up with Chris Puplava's latest market update last night, I had to stop and share some of his words with our followers on Twitter.
Read the opening of Chris' article, "Stop Talking and Start Listening!". You'll find some worthwhile comments on interpreting data and the importance of maintaining accountability in one's market calls.
Monday 7atSeven: looking for the turn
Here are seven (or so) links at 7AM Eastern. We will see you later with the daily linkfest. Good luck out there.
If you are not looking to the turn you are missing out. (The Reformed Broker)
The financial sector is again trading above book value. (FT)
Value Premium Concentration in January [PREMIUM]
Is the value premium seasonal? In their 2012 paper entitled “Is the Value Effect Seasonal? Evidence from Global Equity Markets”, Praveen Kumar Das and Uma Rao investigate the intersection of the January effect and the value premium in stock market indexes around the world.
Aussie Retails Sales Falls
Australian retail sales unexpectedly declined in December, the first drop in six months, as consumers spent less at grocers and on dining out in an economy where employment growth stalled last year.
Sales slipped 0.1 percent from a month earlier, when they rose a revised 0.1 percent, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. The result compares with the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 26 economists for a 0.2 percent gain.
Reader Mailbag: Saint Bernards
What’s inside? Here are the questions answered in today’s reader mailbag, boiled down to five word summaries. Click on the number to jump straight down to the question.
1. Vacuum sealed bags
2. Boardgame with new couple friends
3. Investing for house down payment
4. Roth IRA versus Roth 401(k)
5. Hedging bets for retirement
6. Multiple savings “funds”
Flexibility or Salary: Which Do You Value More?
Kiplinger highlights a salary versus flexibility survey of Gen Y workers with this being the most controversial finding:
About one-third of the respondents, representing college students and young professionals from around the world, said they'd choose more personal freedom, or flexibility, in the workplace over a higher salary.
What does "flexibility" mean in this case? It includes:
Weekly Market Commentary: Breakout in Nasdaq
A good week for the indices and the Nasdaq in particular.
The Nasdaq pushed to a new multi-year high on higher volume accumulation. It has the look of a solid breakout which can probably withstand a few weeks of weakness before pushing on. Assuming a period of consolidation follows it will be important for 2,700 to hold.
Christians Are Better Investors
For those of you new to Free Money Finance, I post on The Bible and Money every Sunday. Here's why.
Missing Tax Paperwork?
Have you started thinking about doing your taxes yet? I haven’t. Rather, as I do every year, I’ve just been tossing all of our tax forms in a pile as they arrive, and I haven’t paid much attention to what’s here vs. what’s missing.
But now that we’ve moved into February, you should have everything you need to file your taxes, as most everything is supposed to be in your hands by January 31st.
NFP no license to apply risk
Analysts’ employment expectations were blown out of the water on Friday. NFP produced a stellar report, creating +243k new jobs, pushing the unemployment rate down two ticks to +8.3%. Risk has been quickly applied and added to in the markets. The loonie is a shining example of a growth currency outperforming, especially on the back of its own disappointing employment report. However, beware of the extremely bearish risk factors lurking in the background i.e Euro debt crisis, slowing global growth and Iran nuclear concerns, which remain largely ignored, before wagering it all on risk.
Economic Data Much Better Than Forecasts
The market is rallying strongly this morning on a double dose of stronger than expected economic data. The first report was the monthly payrolls report, which showed the economy added 243,000 jobs in January. That was far greater than the 155k forecast. Private payrolls were also much greater than expected at +257,ooo vs. 168,000 consensus. Also, the unemployment rate fell to 8.3%.
The Overnight Rule For Managing Your Portfolio
Recently, I came across an investment tip called the Overnight Rule from Carl Richards via the NYT Bucks Blog:
Imagine that all your investment holdings were sold overnight by accident.
You can’t undo the trades, and now all you have is cash.
Would you buy back everything you owned previously again at their current prices? If not, why are you holding them now?
Savings Bond Purchase Limit Increased to $10k in 2012
If you’re a fan of savings bonds, then I have some good news for you… The Treasury has increased the TreasuryDirect purchase limit from $5k per bond type (I or EE) per year to $10k. This change offsets the loss of over-the-counter sales of paper savings bonds, effective January 1, 2012.
From the press release that I just received:
Borrowing of Money Falls
The Euro’s price has dropped considerably in relation to the U.S. dollar over the last three months. The surplus cash held by European banks has helped a little bit, but the debt crisis has overshadowed this. Prices have dropped from 1.42 EUR/USD down to 1.28 over the last three months, showing the world just how precarious the debt crisis is. Meanwhile, banks are fighting to keep the Euro’s levels as high as possible in order to encourage more borrowing. It is estimated that the amount of cash on hand for these banks will be higher this year than levels were last year.
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