More Dividends and Diversification
As a followup to Saturday's post I wanted to outline some ideas for building a dividend tranche for a portfolio where someone might have different buckets within a portfolio. So high yielders might be one bucket, themes another, core another and so on. I could see where it might be easier for some people to think of their portfolio this way. Although not my preference it is perfectly reasonable.

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And Now For Some Funds No One Will Use
Deutsche Bank came out with the following ETFs;
db-X MSCI Japan Currency-Hedged Equity Fund (DBJP)
db-X MSCI Brazil Currency-Hedged Equity Fund (DBBR)
db-X MSCI Canada Currency-Hedged Equity Fund (DBCN)
db-X MSCI EAFE Currency-Hedged Equity Fund (DBEF)
db-X MSCI Emerging Markets Currency-Hedged Equity Fund (DBEM)

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MAY DAY (M'AIDEZ):
In one of the rarest occasions, next week's blog will be MIA, as I shall be incommunicado on vacation at Lake Tahoe, playing the real casino instead of the stock market. I'll have my trusty Droid to keep up with the markets, but will not be able to post Sentiment results.
Today's large drop only validates the Sentiment signals blaring out since the first of the year (see previous blogs). We have yet to break to a new high greater than February's and remain in a Trading Range.

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12-month High Effect for Sectors? [PREMIUM]
“The Industry 52-week High Effect” summarizes findings that the 52-week high effect, the future outperformance (underperformance) of stocks currently near their respective 52-week highs (lows), is stronger and more consistent for 20 industries than for individual stocks. Do findings apply to equity sectors that are somewhat broader than the 20 industries?

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Stocks Slump Again Led by AAPL Stock and Small Cap Stocks
Another gap and trap day where stocks weren’t able to hold the gains seen at the opening of the day. Gap and traps aren’t bullish movements, but bearish ones and today’s move came with increased volume on the NASDAQ as volume slide on the NYSE. A few mergers in the morning helped boost the mood of traders, but sellers were able to wrestle control away from the bulls. Continued bearish action on the NASDAQ with AAPL stock leading the way certainly has put a dark cloud over the market.

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AAPL Stock Finds Support, but the Market Falls in Fast Trade
For the second straight day sellers took to the market knocking stocks lower in fast trade. Wednesday’s market was able to see intraday support off the lows as the NASDAQ hit its 50 day moving average. The intraday rally did faed into the close, but stocks did find support at the lows. Volume ran higher on the day as the NASDAQ suffered its second heavy volume session in a row. Last night’s commentary indicated this market was in correction mode and today’s market action confirmed it. Despite the lift off the intraday lows, the market remains on shaky ground.

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Leading Stocks Like AAPL Get Hit Hard in Heavy Volume Selling
The wave of anti-government demonstrations moved is way into Libya over the weekend causing havoc amongst equity markets. Even better than expected Consumer Confidence figures as well as Richmond Fed Manufacturing couldn’t entice buyers to prop up the market. Heavy volume sellers were in our stock market leaders today showing institutions were dumping stocks, the best performers. Today, the market went into correction mode with a big percentage decline on higher volume. When the likes of NFLX stock are AAPL stock taking beatings you must stand up and take notice. While no one kn

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Wednesday links: asset allocation anxiety
Quote of the day
David Merkel, “Good asset allocation marries the time horizon of an investor to the forecasts for future returns, conservatively stated, and considers what could go wrong.” (Aleph Blog)
Chart of the day

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More Farrell
Paul Farrell's latest takes aim at "Dow 20,000" as being more hype citing all the people who were tragically bullish going into the financial crisis. I would venture to say that for as many people who were incorrectly bullish to start 2008 there were just as many who were incorrectly bearish in 2009.
I will repeat what I said the other day; take in divergent views in conjunction with your own observations and draw your own conclusion.

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Wednesday screencast: cyclical struggles
By most accounts the economy is getting better. Indeed below there is a post with two dozen charts showing this. However in the last few days something is going on with the cyclical stocks. It might be related to the surge in oil prices, it simply be a much needed correction or it could be heralding something for the larger economy. In any event whenever the markets provide a signal like this it is worth heeding. In today’s screencast we take a look at recent weakness in a broad range of cyclical stocks.

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Commodities Continue Plunge; Drag Stocks Down
Stocks stumbled after a poor reading from the ISM Non-Manufacturing index. Despite a moderate figure from the ADP employment report the drop in the ISM index really shook traders. Sellers were in full control as stocks were heading into panic mode just before the one o’clock hour. Buyers were able to save the day from the selling carnage. At the end of the day volume appeared higher across the board. IBD has NASDAQ volume lower while Bloomberg indicates volume was actually higher.

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Simple Sector ETF Momentum Strategy Robustness/Sensitivity Tests [PREMIUM]
Readers have requested sensitivity testing of the ranking interval for the simple sector momentum trading strategies described in “Simple Sector ETF Momentum Strategy Performance”. These strategies generally reallocate funds monthly, based on highest past return, to one of the nine sectors defined by the Select Sector Standard & Poor’s Depository Receipts (SPDR) exchange-traded funds (ETF):

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Two Themes Near and Dear
Well it is finally here (scheduled for tomorrow actually); the Norwegian Fishery ETF! Long time readers will know I have been writing about this theme for several years. The long term global demand for fish seems to be a one way trade which creates a long term tailwind for the stocks. To be clear the stocks will still face the ups and downs of the stock market cycle but more people globally are going to be able to afford better diets.

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Sunday Morning Coffee
The New York Times Magazine posted an update on Iceland that had some great quotes and thinking (as opposed to talking) points.
First up was this comment from an Icelander who did not get caught up in the excess;

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Tuesday screencast: Apple agita
In a prior screencast we noted the importance of Apple to the Nasdaq 100 and the overall tech economy. Now we are seeing some of the downside from this reliance in the announcement that the Nasdaq 100 index is being rebalanced. This rebalancing will reduce the weighting in Apple by some 8%. One question is how is that a major market index could get so overweighted in any individual security. In short, investors need to look behind an index to understand how it is constructed. The

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Extreme Market Sentiment Levels Buy or Sell?
Click Here for the Free Report
Free Report: Buying Opportunity?

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Commodities Tumble; CSCO Stumbles in After-Hours

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Dr. Bernanke Must Have A Migraine
John Nyaradi Wall Street Sector Selector
Yesterday's stock market action returned the S&P 500 to 1119 which is where it was on September 14, 2010, roughly two weeks after Dr. Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech on August 27, 2010, in which he hinted at the launch of "QE2," the Fed's $600 Billion bond buying program.

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Alternative Sector ETF Momentum Metrics [PREMIUM]
Readers have suggested three alternative metrics for the strategy tested in the “Simple Sector ETF Momentum Strategy Performance”: (1) Sharpe Ratio over the past six months; (2) slope of price over the past six months; and, (3) average of three-month, six-month and 12-month past returns. Do these metrics outperform past six-month return in a momentum More...

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Asian-Pacific Financial Forecasts
13 Asian-Pacific Markets, Divided Into 2 Groups
"A Merrill Lynch survey of global fund managers finds that long exposure to emerging markets has now dropped to merely 5%, the lowest reading since March 2009."

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