Charts: How End of QE Could Impact EURUSD and USDJPY
By the end of this month, the Federal Reserve will have completed its asset purchase program, bringing its second round of Quantitative Easing to an end. As QE2 draws to a close, it is worthwhile to consider how the dollar could react. When the first round of Quantitative Easing came to an end, we saw a massive dollar rally (see EUR/USD chart below). USD/JPY did not participate in the rally because of lingering concerns about the need for more stimulus (second chart).
Counting down to BoJ Meeting
Before you know it, the Bank of Japan will be delivering their monetary policy announcement. Far less attention has been paid to the BoJ announcement than last’s ECB or RBNZ meetings and for good reason. For the past few years, the central bank has been more reactive than proactive and never one to opt for surprises. The following table shows how economic data has fared since the last meeting and its clearly been mixed. Given the lack of clarity on the state of the economy, there is very little reason for the central bank to act.
Another Earthquake Strikes New Zealand
Interest rate hike for kiwi likely pushed back
Many forex traders have been hoping for an interest rate hike for New Zealand, but that is unlikely, given that there has been another earthquake in Christchurch.
Has the RBA Announcement Marked a Top in AUD?
The Reserve Bank of Australia made it very clear last night that they do not plan to raise interest rates in the foreseeable future. Despite the rise in commodity prices, the RBA expressed little concern about inflation. As a result, the AUD/USD extended its losses as investors realized that unlike the ECB and other central banks who are just beginning their tightening cycles, the RBA is done.
Portuguese Bond Yields Continue to Rise
Yields for Portugal’s bonds rose to an all-time high this morning as investors continue to shy away from buying debt from the troubled country. Speculation continues to grow that Portugal has no option but to seek a financial bail-out from the European Union.
UK Growth Expected to Decline
The British economy continues to wrangle with very weak growth even as consumers are being hammered by surging prices. The result is an inflation rate double the target “ideal” of two percent annual inflation. And while the last few years have not been a walk in the park, there appears little prospect for immediate relief.
Euro Weaker on Greek Restructuring Rumors
The euro declined by a full percentage against the dollar in early-morning trading in new York today. Meanwhile, the yield on Greek two-year bonds jumped 100 points to 19.50 percent, the highest rate in the Eurozone area. The reason for the refocusing on Greece’s debt is the persistent rumor that Greece is preparing a restructuring deal that could see some debt-holders offered less in return for forgiving the full amount.
Canadian Dollar Expected to Lead G7 Currencies
Now that the uncertainty that comes with the constant threat of defeat of the previous minority government has been set aside for at least the next four to five years, the Canadian dollar is quickly establishing itself as a top choice for investors. Canada has had a succession of minority governments over the past seven years but with the emergence of a Conservative majority government following Monday’s federal election, investors are expected to once again turn to Canada and the Canadian dollar as choice investment opportunities.
Has the US Dollar Hit Bottom?
In April, I declared that the dollar would rally when QE2 ended. That date – June 30 – is now only a few weeks away, which means it won’t be long before we know whether I was right. Meanwhile, the dollar is close to pre-credit crisis levels on a composite basis, and has already fallen to record lows against a handful of specific currencies. In other words, it’s now do-or-die for the dollar.
Euro Moves Higher in Forex Trading
EUR/USD rallies in currency trading
The euro is heading higher in forex trading on the currency market today, gaining after pulling back some. EUR/USD is above 1.42 again, and going strong.
Journaling Your Trades
Journaling and recording your trades can be the difference between profitability and losing money. It’s no secret that the simple act of keeping written records of your trading behavior can point out both good and bad habits. Once you can physically see what you are doing right, you can emphasize that practice with future trades. Seeing the things that you do wrong in black and white can also help you to become more aware of those negative practices and avoid them in the future.
Euro Nears Breaking Point
It’s deja vu all over again in the forex markets as another twist in the sovereign debt crisis has sent the euro tumbling by the greatest margin in nearly a year. It was only last month that I posted “The Euro (Still) has a Greek Problem,” and yet, forex markets are once again reacting to the possibility of a Greek default as thought it were a new development. At the very least, investors finally seem to be acknowledging the inevitable.
German Business Confidence Gain Supports Euro
An upsurge in business confidence in Germany helped lift the euro to a 0.3 percent gain by 7:55am in New York this morning. Speculation also continues to support further interest rate gains by the European Central Bank and this is also contributing to an increase in demand today for the euro.
US Dollar Mixed in Forex Trading
Greek news, economy sends mixed signals to greenback
The US dollar is mixed in forex trading on the currency market today as an interesting situation arises. On one hand, Greek officials are trying to make it clear that they are attempting to meet austerity goals.
SNB to Intervene in the Currency Market
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will enforce its minimum rate of 1.2 Swiss francs per euro and is ready to buy unlimited amounts of foreign currency in any global interbank market, said interim president Thomas Jordan on Tuesday.
The SNB introduced the 1.2 francs-per-euro cap in September to stem the Swiss currency appreciation in an effort to relieve the pressure on the country’s exporters and prevent the risk of deflation.
Euro Falls on Disappointing Regional Data
Euro in forex trading
Euro is falling today, in spite of the general inclination toward risk appetite right now. The latest news out of the eurozone is providing disappointment, and that is sending the euro lower in forex trading.
New (Free) E-Magazine For Spread Betters And CFD Traders
I was browsing through one of the trading forums this morning and someone posted a link to a new spread betting magazine that is available online. (...)
Weekly Trading Update - 07-11 November 2011
There were no trades for me again this week, and I've actually decided to stop trading forex for the time being. (...)
Canadian Dollar Loses Steam on Weaker U.S. Outlook
After recently touching a 90-day high against its U.S. counterpart, the Canadian dollar’s advance appears to have stalled. The pause coincided with news that for the first time since last May, Canada’s economy shrank as Statistics Canada reported that the economy contracted by 0.1 percent for the month of November.
What EZ Bond Yields Imply About S&P Downgrades
Since Standard & Poor’s cut the ratings of 9 Eurozone countries, the euro has done nothing but rally. One of the main reasons why the EUR/USD has been so resilient is because the downgrades had very little impact on European bond yields. French and Spanish bond yields have increased but by less than a tenth of a percent while Italian bond yields decreased since the S&P announcement. The following table compares the 10 year bond yield and 5 year CDS spreads of key EZ nations today vs. before S&P’s announcement.








