Friday 7atSeven: bull market stages
Here are seven (or so) links at 7AM Eastern. We will see you later with the daily linkfest. Good luck out there.
Where are we in the three stages of bull markets. (Ivanhoff Capital)
Where did all the ETF volume go in January? (FT)

Category: General Market Tags:
Wednesday 7atSeven: quiet complacency
Here are seven (or so) links at 7AM Eastern. We will see you later with the daily linkfest. Good luck out there.
It’s pretty quiet out there, volatility-wise. Maybe too quiet. (Money Game)
By these measures the market uptrend is intact. (Ivanhoff Capital)

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Finding The Most Profitable Asia Stocks
Click Here To Review The Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast
Asian-Pacific Stocks: Which Country Is a Bull for 2012, and Which Is a Bear?

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Tuesday links: competitive benefits
Quote of the day
Eric Falkenstein, “ We are nicer, better, less short-sighted, when we have to compete.” (Falkenblog)
Chart of the day

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Guesstimates on February 6, 2012
March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1329-1340. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.
QQQ: Headed for 63.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Category: General Market Tags:
TOIL AND TRUBBLE:
Recent Sentiment (and breadth) data has shown the most remarkable extremes that I can ever remember, in the 7 years or more of writing this blog! Let me count the ways:
The DJIA and S&P 500 hit all time record point gains for a January; the NASDAQ reached an 11-year high last week. The 2011 high for the SPX was 1365 - it closed Friday at 1344.
My cumulative Advance/Decline indicator continues to make new all time highs; NAZ Volume to NYSE indicates speculation; the VIX is at a relative extreme low of 17.

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Doug Kass: Lyrical Oracle?
As suggested by readers, we evaluate here Douglas Kass’ outlooks for the U.S. stock market since mid-2006 as extracted from his Seabreeze Partners blog.

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Understand the Moment
We all have our own philosophies on how we deal with life or our process for making decisions including investment decisions. Part of my make up is to try to live in the moment or realize that life is about the journey more so than the destination. Another aspect to living in the moment is understanding the moment.

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Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update
Big Wave Trading remains fully invested in all margin and IRA accounts. Big Wave Trading has been fully invested since the full BUY signal was generated on 1/5/2012. While many traders/investors tried to deny the uptrend as just another suck out, our model told us to expect more via the price and volume action across a myriad of stocks across multiple sectors. The past week the market finally took off and our long positions were rewarded greatly. We at Big Wave Trading could care less how much the market moves up from here. We know that we can not control the gains.

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Saturday links: limit orders and dopamine
The weekend is a great time to catch up on some of the reading you skipped during the week. We hope you enjoy this set of long-form links.
Finance
What is the ‘limit order effect‘ and how does it change our thinking about behavioral finance? (The Psy-Fi Blog)

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The Big Picture for the Week of February 5, 2012
After 22 trading days so far this year the S&P 500 is up 6.94%. Anyone may have a bullish outlook or bearish one but right here right now the market is rallying and seems like it has a good head of steam behind it.

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Facebook $FB Files for an IPO as a late day sell-off takes down the S&P 500
The big talk of the town was FB filing for its IPO. Despite the news of the IPO sellers hit the market late day pushing stocks from its highs. Over at the NASDAQ despite sellers on the NYSE the NASDAQ appeared to be somewhat immune. Volume soared on the NASDAQ as institutions pile back into technology stocks. It is clear the leading index of this rally is the NASDAQ and we view this as a positive sign. A solid day for the NASDAQ while it appears the NYSE related indexes continue to lag.

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Thursday links: sell side blues
Quote of the day
David Swensen, “A fiduciary would offer low-volatility funds and encourage investors to stay the course,” he said. “But the for-profit mutual fund industry benefits by offering high-volatility funds.” (Justin Fox)
Chart of the day

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A Reader Asks, I Answer
A reader asks;
The comment stream is asking you to elaborate as to that portion of your statement wherein you said owning 'dividend growers exclusively' is risky or not advisable...exactly what are the dangers of having an income stream as a primary goal instead of capital appreciation?
My answer;

Category: General Market Tags:
TWIST AND SHOUT! :
While the Fed does the Twist with Zero interest rates impoverishing prudent investors while banks prosper, Occupy Wall St. shouts displeasure (37% of those polled agree with them). Uncle Ben predicted that the QEs would raise the stock market, but failed to mention the prices of oil, food, etc. that the average citizen had to buy, while receiving negative interest after Inflation (2 1/2%), taxes (going up soon), and a weakening $.
The year-end rally has begun, according to various cycles, but could become sticky around the current level (Jan., Mar., and Jun. lows/Support).
New Stock Market Article At The Motley Fool
A Handful Of Stocks Ready To Move Higher
New Stock Market Article At The Motley Fool

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Making a Phone Call and Text Message to Sell
Click Here To Review and Compare Different Trading Software's
Kung Hei Fat Choi! Happy Chinese New Year in the Year of the Water Dragon!

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Could Happen To Anyone
Over the last couple of weeks or so I've disclosed buying two new individual stocks for most of our large client accounts (in this context large means accounts where we believe using mostly individual stocks is suitable). A hopefully amusing thought occurred to me that actually relates to a potentially serious issue, certainly a frustrating issue.

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Fighting the Fed is Futile; AAPL and Bernanke Send Stocks Higher
Stocks were weak to begin the day as pending home sales were weaker than expected. The weakness didn’t last very long as traders and investors were positioning themselves ahead of the Federal Reserve policy statement. By noon, stocks were at session highs, but it wasn’t until the market heard the news rates would be held down until the end of 2014. Regardless of what you think of the statement the market went higher and with volume to boot. While the market closed off the highs of the session the day overall was very bullish.

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OVERFISHING:
Days like today (down 240 points on the DJIA) only further the idea that the sharks (HFTs, Institutional Traders, et.al) are driving the small fish out of the water -only to fight among themselves. In the matrix below we see that equity mutual fund outflows have steadily occurred since April 22 without exception, and money market inflows are again happening -after the scare about dangerous European securities being invested in.

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Popular Today
- 6Finding The Most Profitable Asia Stocks
- 6Wednesday 7atSeven: quiet complacency
- 4Guesstimates on February 8, 2012
- 4Asset Class Diversification Effectiveness Factors [PREMIUM]
- 4Wednesday links: dormant ideas
- 4Stocks Close in the Green Again; Uptrend continues
- 3Positive Earnings Reactions Continue To Outpace Negative Reactions
- 1Hussman on Recession Probabilities
- 1Inflation or Deflation? Which One Is It?
