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Stocks Close in the Green Again; Uptrend continues

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Just another day in this uptrend as stocks close higher on the day recovering from early morning lows. Volume rose on the day showing institutions had an appetite supporting the market on the morning dip. It is truly amazing this market is on, a straight line to multi-year highs from what appeared to a market heading for fresh bear market lows. For now, it appears the market is more focused on the Fed’s printing presses than any country from the European Union defaulting. Stop fighting the trend as it has been very painful for those who have been.

 
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3

Positive Earnings Reactions Continue To Outpace Negative Reactions

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The market is slightly higher in early trading. For the first morning in awhile, there were no headlines out of Greece about progress or delays in its debt settlement talks.

Asian markets were higher overnight, led by China after the govt. raised gasoline prices and also provided support to the real estate market by instructing lenders to accommodate first time homebuyers.

 
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1

Hussman on Recession Probabilities

http://randomroger.blogspot.com

Cullen Roche excerpted John Hussman discussing why he (Hussman) is still in the recession camp, he thinks it is the most likely outcome, and why a 25% decline for equities is likely.

 
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4

Wednesday links: dormant ideas

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Quote of the day

Farhad Manjoo, “Honeywell seems to have patented a bunch of great ideas in order to just sit on them.”  (Slate)

Chart of the day

 
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6

Wednesday 7atSeven: quiet complacency

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Here are seven (or so) links at 7AM Eastern.  We will see you later with the daily linkfest.  Good luck out there.

It’s pretty quiet out there, volatility-wise.  Maybe too quiet.  (Money Game)

By these measures the market uptrend is intact.  (Ivanhoff Capital)

 
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4

Asset Class Diversification Effectiveness Factors [PREMIUM]

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What factors make asset class diversification work?

 
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6

Finding The Most Profitable Asia Stocks

http://invest2success.blogspot.com

Click Here To Review The Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast
Asian-Pacific Stocks: Which Country Is a Bull for 2012, and Which Is a Bear?

 
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4

Guesstimates on February 8, 2012

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1340-1350. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

 
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6

Tuesday links: competitive benefits

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Quote of the day

Eric Falkenstein, “ We are nicer, better, less short-sighted, when we have to compete.”  (Falkenblog)

Chart of the day

 
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3

Stocks Finish off the Lows as Volume Drops

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Settling near the highs of the session stocks put in a solid day of consolidation. Volume fell more than 20% across the board, a very good sign institutions weren’t selling. After such a big run up, a day or two of consolidation is a very healthy signal. Crude oil settled lower, but natural gas is in the midst of forming what it appears to be a bottom. While a positive sign for those drilling for the natural resource, but not a particularly good sign for consumers.

 
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3

Will Dip Buyers Continue To Surface?

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Lately it seems like every dip we've seen in the market has been quickly bought by folks looking to get more invested and put money to work in equities. With the market down slightly again this morning the question is will dip buyers continue to show up?

Earnings reports continue to garner positive reactions for the most part. The list of stocks moving higher after reporting includes: KO, SWI, HAR, PRGO, TDG, CSTR, APC, and YUM. A couple of stocks lower on their earnings reports are EMR and GSK.

 
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2

Download this and thank me later

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The brand new Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2012 is out!*  This is a must-download for any one seriously interested in investing.  In addition to the great data it provides there are also some in-depth articles from Dimson, Marsh and Staunton.  In one piece they look at the ability of various asset classes to hedge inflation.  In another article they look at the benefits (or not) of currency hedging in int

 
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4

How and When to Sell

http://randomroger.blogspot.com

A few comments came in over the weekend asking for my take about when to sell a stock. This is a multi dimensional topic with a lot of variables for each dimension but I will try to cover a lot of ground. Keep in mind this is what we do for client accounts, you may want to do things very differently. I can't say what is right for you, only what we believe is best for our clients. Most of these will be examples of trades we've done and why.

 
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2

Turn of the Year and Size in U.S. Equities

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The turn of the year (December-January) for the U.S. stock market reportedly includes the Santa Claus rally and the January effect. Some research indicates the latter is dead (and was driven essentially by small-capitalization stocks when alive). How does the stock market behave across the turn of the year for a recent sample?

 
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1

Guesstimates on February 7, 2012

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1330-1340. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

 
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5

Boosting Long-Term Mutual Fund Returns

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Click Here for a Morningstar Investment Research Free Trial
With some intelligent new-year planning, you can make your mutual fund investments even more rewarding. Here's how.

Step One: Rebalance Your Portfolio.

 
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1

New “Strategic Allocation” Category

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There is a new “Strategic Allocation” category in the list above that collects posts related to selection and weighting of asset classes for long-term diversification benefits. You May Also Enjoy...

 
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6

Guesstimates on February 6, 2012

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1329-1340. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

 
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6

TOIL AND TRUBBLE:

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Recent Sentiment (and breadth) data has shown the most remarkable extremes that I can ever remember, in the 7 years or more of writing this blog! Let me count the ways:
The DJIA and S&P 500 hit all time record point gains for a January;  the NASDAQ reached an 11-year high last week. The 2011 high for the SPX was 1365 - it closed Friday at 1344.

My cumulative Advance/Decline indicator continues to make new all time highs; NAZ Volume to NYSE indicates speculation; the VIX is at a relative extreme low of 17.

 
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