TraderWise

The official-sounding but totally private United States Commodity Funds has launched another ETF based on natural gas prices.  United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund (UNL) started trading Wednesday (11/18/09).  It joins the firm’s previous offering, United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) in an attempt to offer small investors an easy way to participate in the natural gas market.

The new fund is a response to certain structural problems of UNG that resulted in dramatic underperformance relative to its benchmark, particularly in the last few months.  This chart of UNG vs

The price of oil rose 15.7% yesterday, so why didn’t the related exchange traded fund (ETF) shoot up accordingly?
John Hyland, chief investment officer at the U.S. Commodity Fund, the firm behind the United States Oil Fund (USO), says that some commodity funds that deal in futures contracts actually roll to the second month before the [...]

On July 7, 2009, I wrote the following on the United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG).
Bloomberg reported that UNG closed Friday with a 20% premium. (Reminds me of those good old closed end funds).
There is a good article about UNG on Seeking Alpha.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced a plan that would see limits placed on those speculating in energy futures including oil, natural gas, and heating fuels. The proposal would allow exemptions for commodity-dependent business such as airlines and transit companies that use futures contracts to hedge costs.

Bloomberg

Sold my United States natural gas fund ETF (UNG).
Why ? Well, as posted on this blog before, I was adding shares as it dropped below $10
(see past posts by typing UNG in the blog search)
Bearish on UNG ? No way !
Taking profits :)

Will buy again soon, will keep you posted.

United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) ; time to be a contrarian !
1) Weekly chart
2) Real trigger is a weekly close above $10
3) If price dips below $9.25, I'll start adding shares
4) Would love to see UNG spike down below $9 (I am dreaming of course)
5) Price target = $15 (around mid April)

United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) ; double bottom ?
1) Would like to see "more" volume
2) Been adding shares of UNG
3) A weekly close above $9.5 is what we need now.

Time to buy the United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG) ?
1) Catalyst ; we need one !
2) Volume, a gap, and some bullish news .....
3) Entry 1 stands right above $8.8 ; meaning ? Would buy a small position right above that level, and increase above $9
4) Sitting on a reliable support ? We shall soon see .......

Weekly chart of the United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG)
Yesterday's price closed @ $11.51
There are times when a "chartist" should use some business common sense.
It is always hard to catch a bottom, but if you start to inject "small amount" of cash in this ETF, your return should be pretty decent (next 12 months).
Trading plan ; will buy some at the open, and will increase positions as it goes lower.
Target position size ? At least 3 to 4% of my portfolio