Oscillator

6

TOIL AND TRUBBLE:

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Recent Sentiment (and breadth) data has shown the most remarkable extremes that I can ever remember, in the 7 years or more of writing this blog! Let me count the ways:
The DJIA and S&P 500 hit all time record point gains for a January;  the NASDAQ reached an 11-year high last week. The 2011 high for the SPX was 1365 - it closed Friday at 1344.

My cumulative Advance/Decline indicator continues to make new all time highs; NAZ Volume to NYSE indicates speculation; the VIX is at a relative extreme low of 17.

 
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5

YEAR END WHIMPER:

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With the S&P 500 ending EXACTLY the same as the year before -1257.6 - it signified the boring end to 2011; many of the Indicators regressed to the mean on low Volume, with the VIX at 23. Some relative extremes did include the Inv.Intell. Bulls at 50+%; my records show a 62.9% high in Dec. of '04. AAII Bulls jumped to 40% - must be the champagne! A small number of funds flowed out of equity funds into MMFs, but the ETFs remained almost unchanged month/month.
Here are closing numbers for 2011:

Date>

 
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6

TWIST AND SHOUT! :

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While the Fed does the Twist with Zero interest rates impoverishing prudent investors while banks prosper, Occupy Wall St. shouts displeasure (37% of those polled agree with them). Uncle Ben predicted that the QEs would raise the stock market, but failed to mention the prices of oil, food, etc. that the average citizen had to buy, while receiving negative interest after Inflation (2 1/2%), taxes (going up soon), and a weakening $.
The year-end rally has begun, according to various cycles, but could become sticky around the current level (Jan., Mar., and Jun. lows/Support). 

 
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3

JANUARY BAROMETER:

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As the old saying goes (Observable, but not Actionable) : So goes the first week of January - so goes the month; so goes January, so goes the year! Of course, a la the Heisenberg principle - since the year contains the month, it has a nice running start.

 
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Created by NoFear 6 days 16 hours ago – Made popular 6 days 15 hours ago
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4

NEW & DEPROVED SENTIMENT TABLE:

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Still working on the matrix transfer, but the data is updated. 
One of my DITM blog readers kindly shared a DITM-style website, for those interested:
tknight@fullyinformed.com
Additionally, the Gabelli ETF - GDV- also does a nice job, with a 3+% mgmt fee. I also listed 2 trades I did today, ex-dividend tomorrow.

 
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5

ORANGE ALERT:

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Interesting week for a rather calm stock market: the S&P500 broke up through the 1300 level to a double top from last July - Larry McMillan states that it is 3 Std Deviations above its 20-day MA, and just as Oct and Apr.'11 and Feb.'07, the OEX put/call Volume ratio was 2:1. The Baltic Dry Index broke below 1000 for the first time in 3 years, a global economic indicator.

 
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5

RALPH CLARK - R.I.P:

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This column is dedicated to a good friend, neighbor, and fellow investor, who passed away late last week from ALS at 81. Ralph Clark was a student of investing, at GGU and briefly with the San Francisco Bay Area Options Group. Before passing, he asked me to dispose of nearly 50 quality investment books which I intend to do at the upcoming Options monthly meeting this Saturday morning at Fort Mason, where I and other speakers will explain our experiences with my DITM investment strategy.

 
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6

OVERFISHING:

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Days like today (down 240 points on the DJIA) only further the idea that the sharks (HFTs, Institutional Traders, et.al) are driving the small fish out of the water -only to fight among themselves. In the matrix below we see that equity mutual fund outflows have steadily occurred since April 22 without exception, and money market inflows are again happening -after the scare about dangerous European securities being invested in.

 
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4

REVERSAL OF FORTUNE:

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After a very insignificant increase in Equity Fund flows the previous week, outflows returned last week to the norm from last April. The latest monthly data of ETFs show almost no change in flows from stocks, Int'l, or bonds.

 
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