Thursday links: really soft commodities
The Risk Assets Index is showing a bit too much enthusiasm. (TraderFeed)
The Russell 2000 has retraced some two-thirds of its bear market move. (Barron’s)

Category: General Market Tags:
Collateral Damage in the War on Depression
“Just allow it…just admit it. It doesn’t matter where the inflation comes from. Just let it stay…”
SLASHING the Bank of England’s base interest rate to an historic low of 0.5% was supposed to “rebalance” the economy…tipping it away from galloping consumption towards an export-led recovery.
But all that the Pound’s slump since rates began sinking in March 2008 has done so far, however, is gift a 50% gain to UK gold owners.

Category: Commodities Tags:
As Markets Print New Highs David Rosenberg Is More Pessimistic
From Breakfst With Dave 11 March:
- concerns have shifted to an overheating Chinese economy and increased market chatter that more policy moves to restrain the expansion is coming. China’s inflation rate hit a 16-month high of 2.7% in February.

Category: Technical Analysis Tags:
Inflation Rises in China - Will We See Yuan Appreciation?
How Fast Will Chinese Officials Clamp Down?
It appears that Chinese inflation is on the rise again, indicating that the country is seeing strong economic growth. Again. China's leaders are wary of seeing such rapid growth, and are expected to clamp down, possibly even revaluing the yuan against the U.S. dollar.
Daily Futures Commentary March 11, 2010
Thursday, March 11, 2010
U.S. equity markets are expected to open weaker this morning but off their lows. Last night’s news that China’s inflation was higher than expected, fueled speculation of a rate hike
which helped drive down demand for higher yielding assets. The lack of follow-though to the downside has triggered a short-covering rally which is helping to boost equity prices from their overnight
lows. Yesterday the March E-mini S&P 500 stopped at its January high of 1148.00, triggering a profit-taking break.

Category: Fundamental Analysis Tags:
China to exit stimulus plans?
Governor Bollard from the RBNZ stated last night that they do not anticipate ‘hiking interest rates until mid-year’. With the SNB this morning, the market will be focusing on their policy on FX intervention in EUR/CHF. Economic indications and inflation forecasts ‘did not require’ the sort of intervention that surprised and upset the markets last year. There is no doubt it, Hillenbrand ‘does not want to see a strong CHF’.
Dovish RBNZ Sends NZD Plummeting
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
JPY
0.18
GBP
-0.03
CHF
-0.11
EUR
-0.18
• Japan’s Tsumura sees signs of self-sustained recovery in domestic demand.
• Japan’s Hirano was more pessimistic; saying economy still in severe state despite positive growth
• Japan Q4 GDP was revised to +0.9% q/q, +3.8% annualized (1.0%/4.0% expected, 1.1%/4.6% prior)
• Reports that the China Statistics Bureau sees mild inflation in the coming year, but no signs of overheating.
• China CPI…
Read More …

Category: Fundamental Analysis Tags:
SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD) Underperforms Equities
I have a long position here that I opened not following my rules. When I do it.....
GLD is now re-testing the upper trendline after the breakout to the upside.
Force Index is negative. MACD printed a negative divergence at the top.
Not nice.
Slopeof hope wrote

Category: Technical Analysis Tags:
Robert Shiller and Jeremy Siegel Discuss The Market
There was an article in the WSJ about the bear v. bull debate between Jeremy Siegel and Robert Shiller.
Mr. Shiller worries that the housing market could be turning down after a brief recovery, which could contribute to a decline in U.S. stocks, which already look expensive to him.

Category: Technical Analysis Tags:
Pound Falls, but may be Oversold
One of the pitfalls of forex blogging (or all financial reporting for that matter) is that it’s inherently after-the fact. In other words, any information about the past – while relevant – is inherently useless, since it has theoretically already been priced into the asset (or currency in this case). Before I begin my post on the Pound’s recent decline and the factors that wrought it, then, I wanted to offer the caveat that in analyzing past events, we must simultaneously look to the future.
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