Indices

3

NFP or Russian Roulette anyone

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It’s like attending a bingo session. All eyes will be down waiting for the highly anticipated employment print this morning. Will this week’s ADP report translate into a much weaker jobs number? Will the stubbornly elevated weekly claims push the unemployment rate up two ticks? Will analyst’s consensus of a headline loss of -100k jobs and no growth in the private sector provide us with a non-event as we head into the ‘labor’ weekend? Expect liquidity to be thin as many New Yorkers skip out of town averting the storm ahead of the holiday. It’s another crap-shoot.

 
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Created by doubledigit 9 hours 37 min ago – Made popular 8 hours 53 min ago
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6

NFP herding us to No Mans Land

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Better industrial data out of China and the surprising ISM print in the US has every, already confused trader, becoming ‘more lost’ in whatever convictions they have left. At least we have the NFP crap-shoot still to come, that is bound to surprise. We may give up all we have gained in a heart beat this week and we would be none the wiser! Interpreting trading strategies is like a new form of ‘ping-pong’, back and forth with risk appetite. This morning the EUR remains king and has managed to extend its gains in the wake of a well received French and Spanish auctions.

 
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4

Daily Market Commentary: Buyers Storm The Gates

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A day when buyers took over the reins and didn't look back all the way to the market close. The only speed wobble was the light volume in the markets for an almost 3% gain on the day. For the S&P there was even a nascent 'buy' signal in the CCI.

($SPX)

 
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1

Lack of Confidence in the FED would never happen almost never

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Month end flow beats logic, even option expiries and market fix’s beat logic. Yesterday’s stronger US data wilted in its glory as individuals eager to accumulate EUR’s waited in the wings. Stronger manufacturing data out of China and Australia last night is yet to convince the market to go all-in before we get to see the employment data in the US. The market is nervous and lacks conviction proven by the trading strategies being employed thus far this week. Yesterday’s Fed minutes did not exude acute dissension amongst its members to the degree the market had been expecting.

 
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1

FED and BOJ Losing Investors Focus

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Investors continue to test the Fed’s resolve. Is helicopter Ben overly optimistic on his economic outlook? And if so, what is he going to do about it? Yesterday’s equity and bonds reaction is telling us that there is little he can do if policy makers have got it wrong. The Fed, similar to the BOJ is entering ‘no-mans land’. Markets are turning their back on Shirakawa’s emergency lending facility expansion. Even direct yen intervention is futile without the ECB and Fed’s complimentary actions. This week focus on the details.

 
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1

TODAY'S OPEN: DOWN

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Stock futures fall ahead of data, Fed minutes-
"Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 47 points to 9,932, and S&P 500 futures dropped 5.9 points to 1,039.2. Nasdaq 100 futures declined 11.25 points to 1,757.5, as a sharp selloff in Tokyo and ongoing economic worries soured sentiment before the release of U.S. housing and consumer-confidence data."

 
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5

FED to mimic the BOJ

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The FOMC is prepared to provide additional monetary accommodation through unconventional measures if it proves necessary, especially if the outlook were to deteriorate significantly. ‘Significantly’ is so subjective when you own a depreciating asset like a house, mortgaged to the hilt and are still unemployed. Let’s hope whatever Bernanke and Co. have up their sleeve will have more of an market impact that the BOJ’s foray in easing monetary policy over night.

 
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5

Friday screencast: panic rarely pays

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The market should be down today.  Poor GDP numbers, talk of deflation from Ben Bernanke and a big earnings miss from Intel should all spell doom for the market.  However at this moment the major equity indices are all up 1%+.  Why?  The answer is pretty simple.  Sentiment.

 
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3

Risk hinges on Helicopter Bernanke

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Does he seize the moment? His fifteen minutes of infamy? Nope, it will be nothing that exciting, but he is sure to have an impact. The Jackson Hole symposium gives Bernanke the opportunity to clarify the Fed’s monetary policy strategy in the face of a significant slowdown in the US recovery. US economic data leading into the conference has been coming up short, even shorter than all of the modest expectations. Risk appetite hinges on helicopter Ben. Investors want to be guided to more quantitative easing.

 
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