BoJ Poised to Ease
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
CHF
0.19
EUR
0.12
GBP
0.10
JPY
-0.09
• New Zealand Jan retail sales m/m 0.8% vs. 0.5% exp, y/y 2.3% vs. 3.6% exp, ex-autos 0.3% m/m vs.

Category: Fundamental Analysis Tags:
Everything on Script this Morning
The perfect mosaic continues; as mentioned late yesterday surely this morning retail sales would come in better than expected and we'd be up in premarket. As each level is cleared, one expects at some point to have a nasty reversal but more and more people will pile in. So as outlined yesterday in [What's the Potential End Game for this Move] the last of the holdouts will be throwing in the towel, and as the Fast Money guys on CNBC said yesterday "if either (a) OR (b) happens we

Category: Fundamental Analysis Tags:
A EURO bear market rally in the making
The EUR has fallen 10% vs. the dollar in 4-month’s and is now contained in this narrow monthly range. Is this the fair value of the EUR? It’s lost 5% this year over European sovereign debt problems and the possibility that Trichet will fall behind Bernanke in hiking rates. The contagion scenario, referring to Spain and Portugal, has traders leaning left of center in their EUR positions. However, the record ‘short’ bets are in danger of feeling a ‘whiplash effect’. A natural healthy cleansing of the ‘weaker shorts’ is on the horizon.
Pre-Market Open News and Links for Friday
Chart of The Day: "Today's chart illustrates how the recent rise in earnings has impacted the current valuation of the stock market as measured by the price to earnings ratio (PE ratio). Generally speaking, when the PE ratio is high, stocks are considered to be expensive. When the PE ratio is low, stocks are considered to be inexpensive. From 1936 into the early 1990s, the PE ratio tended to peak in the low 20s (red line) and trough somewhere around seven (green line).

Category: General Market Tags:
Nasdaq Prints New Highs. Expecting A Bull Trap?
The 60-minute trend is up according to the force index indicator. The nasdaq emini is printing new highs and is moving above the upward channel that has contained prices since the beginning of February. I have a short position on the S&P, but it is a loser after so many consecutive up closes. %b indicator is developing a negative divergence.

Category: Technical Analysis Tags:
One more Low for United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG)
Working gas in storage was 1,626 Bcf as of Friday, March 5, 2010, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 111 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 71 Bcf less than last year at this time and 19 Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,607 Bcf.

Category: Technical Analysis Tags:
Thursday links: really soft commodities
The Risk Assets Index is showing a bit too much enthusiasm. (TraderFeed)
The Russell 2000 has retraced some two-thirds of its bear market move. (Barron’s)

Category: General Market Tags:
Stock Market Commentary: Bulls Pushing Their Luck
Bulls kept bears out of the game for yet another day as the rally powered higher. Small Caps built on their leadership (note relative strength to the Nasdaq) as the MACD trigger line climbed to new 6-month highs. While markets may not necessarily head down tomorrow bulls should be looking for a test of the 20-day MA before another challenge of highs is made.

Category: Technical Analysis Tags:
Get Ready for Range Expansion Play from SPY Intraday Triangle
If you’ve been lulled to sleep by the recent intraday market action, don’t fret.
According to the long-standing price principle of “Range Expansion and Contraction,” the next move in the market is likely to be a range expansion breakout swing move, that will offer opportunities for those aggressive enough to take them.
Let’s take a quick ‘pure price’ look at the S&P 500 ETF SPY and note the symmetrical triangle compression and the boundaries to watch for a potential breakout.

Category: Technical Analysis Tags:
Thursday Morning Market Comments
Advancers Outnumber Decliners Solidly As Tech Sector Provides Leadership-
The major averages ended higher on the tenth anniversary of 2000's dot-com bubble. Volume totals were reported mixed and very near the prior session totals; slightly lighter on the Nasdaq and slightly higher on the NYSE. Advancers led decliners by a 2-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by nearly a 2-to-1 margin on the Nasdaq exchange.
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