Thursday links: really soft commodities
The Risk Assets Index is showing a bit too much enthusiasm. (TraderFeed)
The Russell 2000 has retraced some two-thirds of its bear market move. (Barron’s)

Category: General Market Tags:
Stock Market Commentary: Bulls Pushing Their Luck
Bulls kept bears out of the game for yet another day as the rally powered higher. Small Caps built on their leadership (note relative strength to the Nasdaq) as the MACD trigger line climbed to new 6-month highs. While markets may not necessarily head down tomorrow bulls should be looking for a test of the 20-day MA before another challenge of highs is made.

Category: Technical Analysis Tags:
Ten Things I Look for in a Range Market
Here's a quick review of what I look for in identifying a range day:
1) A mix of stocks up and down from their opening prices (above; green and red prices);
2) A narrow margin between the number of NYSE stocks advancing and declining;
3) A relatively flat cumulative TICK line;

Category: Technical Analysis Tags:
China to exit stimulus plans?
Governor Bollard from the RBNZ stated last night that they do not anticipate ‘hiking interest rates until mid-year’. With the SNB this morning, the market will be focusing on their policy on FX intervention in EUR/CHF. Economic indications and inflation forecasts ‘did not require’ the sort of intervention that surprised and upset the markets last year. There is no doubt it, Hillenbrand ‘does not want to see a strong CHF’.
Pound Falls, but may be Oversold
One of the pitfalls of forex blogging (or all financial reporting for that matter) is that it’s inherently after-the fact. In other words, any information about the past – while relevant – is inherently useless, since it has theoretically already been priced into the asset (or currency in this case). Before I begin my post on the Pound’s recent decline and the factors that wrought it, then, I wanted to offer the caveat that in analyzing past events, we must simultaneously look to the future.
Entropy, or Why the World as We Know It is Dying
The concept of entropy is one of the most useful terms for understanding just about everything. While it has its origins in natural law — thermodynamics, specifically — the concept holds true pretty much across all closed systems.
In the simplest of terms, every closed system will ultimately degrade toward a state of maximum entropy.
Stock Market Commentary: New Highs for Tech and Smal Caps
Small Caps and Tech continued their good form. Technicals continue to support the move higher for Small Caps (Russell 2000) with new highs for the MACD and +DI line. The Russell 2000 would have to give up 25 points (or 4%) just to test breakout support at 650.
The prior underperformance of the semiconductors was undone with today's 2% gain.

Category: Technical Analysis Tags:
S&P 500 Near New Highs
The stock market is higher again this morning, defying those who continue to call for a pullback. I have been talking about how even though the market had become overbought, instead of pulling back it mostly went sideways while the overbought condition got worked off. This was a positive sign, and as you can see in the chart below, the oscillator has confirmed the recent highs in the market by making a higher high.

Category: General Market Tags:
Greek’s woes passé?
The market has been grasping at straws with little data to use as fodder, especially in the North American trading sessions. Risk-on, risk-off has been moving on hearsay. China may decouple the Yuan from the dollar, the Greek’s have Obama’s support and equity markets rallying on ‘air’ with little volume. Opposing arguments against a stronger EUR are mounting. Rating agencies are questioning the possibility of a European sovereign default.
Riskier Assets in Demand; Europe Debt Worries Remain
Riskier Assets in Demand; Europe Debt Worries Remain
Investors raised their appetite for riskier assets during yesterday's trading, but still avoided European and British currencies because of debt worries. The big gainers yesterday were the AUD and CAD, both currencies are linked to commodities, in particular crude oil. Crude oil had recently gained in positive momentum, although it closed slightly lower yesterday. The question remains whether the EUR and GBP will attract some of the appetite for riskier assets.
Economic News
USD – USD Firm against EUR; Declining vs.

Category: Fundamental Analysis Tags:
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