Bernanke

4

A EURO bear market rally in the making

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The EUR has fallen 10% vs. the dollar in 4-month’s and is now contained in this narrow monthly range. Is this the fair value of the EUR? It’s lost 5% this year over European sovereign debt problems and the possibility that Trichet will fall behind Bernanke in hiking rates. The contagion scenario, referring to Spain and Portugal, has traders leaning left of center in their EUR positions. However, the record ‘short’ bets are in danger of feeling a ‘whiplash effect’. A natural healthy cleansing of the ‘weaker shorts’ is on the horizon.

 
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Created by pssswise 3 hours 39 min ago – Made popular 2 hours 59 min ago
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4

The Dollar, Inflation, and Deflation

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The policies of the politicians have been to inflate, inflate, and inflate some more. And they have been quite successful in doing that. Since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, the dollar has lost something like 97% of is purchasing power. So the boys controlling the printing presses have done quite well in their creation of deflation, except for a period of time in the 1930s when the purchasing power rose considerably.

The question in my mind is not whether the Fed and other policymakers will try to inflate. Indeed I think they will.

 
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6

U.S. Still Seems More Apt for Deflation in Near Term

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A nice quickie in the Wall Street Journal showing despite the massive monetary explosion created by the Federal Reserve, M2 (a measure of money) is flat lining.  Effectively what is happening is as quickly as money is being pushed into the system, a deflationary debt cycle is sapping it on the other end.  In layman's term, the Fed is trying to keep the bath tub full of water, by pouring new buckets of money inside of it, but all the holes at the bottom of the bathtub are just causing it to leak out. 

 
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4

2010 Fund Performance Period 2

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The mutual fund is now on schedule for a summer 2010 launch.

 
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Created by GOVECOCK 1 week 2 days ago – Made popular 1 week 2 days ago
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1

Play the ball where it lies

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As Spring nears and temperatures warm many begin thinking about the game of golf.  And one of the fundamental precepts of golf is to:

Play the ball where it lies, play the course as you find it…

(Source:  Wikipedia also Conversation Kindling)

 
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1

Crude Oil Hits Ceiling in Week as Hedge Funds Attack Euro

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Oil Market Summary for 02/22/2010 to 02/26/2010

Crude oil broke through the $80 a barrel ceiling repeatedly during the week but kept falling back as hedge funds placed big bets on the Euro’s decline.

The fiscal drama in Greece held global markets hostage much of the week as worries about the impact of the Greek crisis on the euro outweighed comments from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke about continued low interest rates in the U.S., pushing the euro down against the dollar and damping crude prices.

The euro recovered some ground on Friday amid new reports of Euro

 
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4

Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s To Downgrade Greece’s Debt Rating

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Some of the issues still in play include credit agencies Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service indicating they might downgrade Greece’s debt rating Unless the country enacts fiscal reform to deal with its massive debt.

Also, U.S. initial claims for last week jumped by 22,000 to 496,000 - the highest level since mid-November.

 
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2

The Multiplication of Money

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The economy grew in the fourth quarter by 5.9%, the most in years. The adjusted monetary base is exploding. Bank reserves are literally through the roof. The Fed is flooding money into the system in an effort to get banks to lend. An historically normal response by banks (to increase lending) would have been massively inflationary, causing the Fed to stomp on the brakes. Despite raising the almost meaningless discount rate (as who uses it?), this week Ben Bernanke assured Congress of an easy monetary policy, with rates remaining low for a long time.

 
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1

Bookkeeping: Weekly Changes to Fund Positions Year 3, Week 30

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Year 3, Week 30 Major Position Changes

To see historic weekly fund changes click here OR the label at the bottom of this entry entitled 'fund positions'.

Cash: 80.6% (v 70.3% last week)
18 long bias: 12.1% (v 24.0% last week)
5 short bias: 7.3% (v 5.7% last week) [Includes 2 'long dollar' positions, 1 option related]

23 positions (vs 25 last week)

Weekly thoughts

 
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6

Treasury Proposes Plan to Help Borrowers

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Bernanke: Record-low rates still needed, as reported by USA Today, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke told Congress on Wednesday that record-low interest rates are still needed to ensure that the U.S. economic recovery will last and to help cushion the sting of high unemployment.

 
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