Jobs Report Stronger Than Expected
The market is rallying again in early trading after a much better jobs report than the consensus was looking for. Nonfarm payrolls for August fell 54,000 but that was far less than the 120,000 that was expected. Moreover, private payrolls rose 67,000, which was considerably stronger than the 44,000 expected gain.

Category: General Market Tags:
NFP or Russian Roulette anyone
It’s like attending a bingo session. All eyes will be down waiting for the highly anticipated employment print this morning. Will this week’s ADP report translate into a much weaker jobs number? Will the stubbornly elevated weekly claims push the unemployment rate up two ticks? Will analyst’s consensus of a headline loss of -100k jobs and no growth in the private sector provide us with a non-event as we head into the ‘labor’ weekend? Expect liquidity to be thin as many New Yorkers skip out of town averting the storm ahead of the holiday. It’s another crap-shoot.
Huge head and shoulder in Copper ?
Weekly Copper chart analysis ;
1) Current pattern shows a clear head and shoulder, with a clear neckline level.
2) Once we get over that neckline, I have a target of 620 by 2012
While the majority of people are bearish on global markets, may I remind you that the market has a life of its own .....
Most often , mistakes are rooted not in ignorance, but fear ; fear of being wrong. That is why the majority is following the bearish crowd .....

Category: Technical Analysis Tags:
A Weak Unemployment Report Will Give You A Chance To Get Out of Bearish Positions - Take It!
Call a spade a spade, my forecast was wrong. Economic conditions are continuing to deteriorate, but the market did not decline on the news. For weeks, I have been getting short and the entry price on those puts was good. The positions were making decent money, but I felt the best had yet to come. Yesterday’s rally stripped away those profits, but at least my losses were contained. I was confident in my forecast and my positions were large. China's PMI did not drop below 50, but it did come in below expectations at 51.7 (52 was the consensus estimate).
NFP herding us to No Mans Land
Better industrial data out of China and the surprising ISM print in the US has every, already confused trader, becoming ‘more lost’ in whatever convictions they have left. At least we have the NFP crap-shoot still to come, that is bound to surprise. We may give up all we have gained in a heart beat this week and we would be none the wiser! Interpreting trading strategies is like a new form of ‘ping-pong’, back and forth with risk appetite. This morning the EUR remains king and has managed to extend its gains in the wake of a well received French and Spanish auctions.
Gold still in overbought uptrend, Stock indexes still choppy
Not much has changed since my last post. The gold market is still over-extended in my opinion, although there are fundamentals that will probably support this market for a very long time. The stock market is still swinging wildly from day to day based on whatever traders think the news is meaning at the moment. And bonds continue to stay at high levels when many analysts think this market has no business being where it is.

Category: Commodities Tags:
Stocks Surge - Is The Downtrend Still Intact
Today was a big day in the stock market as stocks gapped open higher and never looked back. I've been bearish on the market but unfortunately got stopped out of all my shorts right around the open this morning.
Looking at the above chart of the S&P you can see the market is right at its 50 day moving average and is still making lower highs which technically means the downtrend is still intact.

Category: Technical Analysis Tags:
Blogger Sentiment Analysis
Are prominent stock market bloggers in aggregate able to predict the market’s direction? The Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll “is a survey of the web’s most prominent investment bloggers, asking ‘What is your outlook on the U.S. stock market for the next 30 days?’” (bullish, bearish or neutral) on a weekly basis. The site currently lists 16 active prognosticators. Participation has varied over time.
Lack of Confidence in the FED would never happen almost never
Month end flow beats logic, even option expiries and market fix’s beat logic. Yesterday’s stronger US data wilted in its glory as individuals eager to accumulate EUR’s waited in the wings. Stronger manufacturing data out of China and Australia last night is yet to convince the market to go all-in before we get to see the employment data in the US. The market is nervous and lacks conviction proven by the trading strategies being employed thus far this week. Yesterday’s Fed minutes did not exude acute dissension amongst its members to the degree the market had been expecting.
S&P Tests 1040 Level Again
The market has been both lower and higher already in early trading, as a few economic releases swayed early trading. The CaseShiller Home Price Index for June rose to 148.0 from 146.5. That was a slight improvement, but most of the housing slowdown that has been talked about began in July, so this report will likely be taken with a grain of salt until we see how July fared.

Category: General Market Tags:
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