Allow Yourself a Margin for Error – Trade Credit Spreads
Okay, I think we all know my bias at this point. For those who don’t, it’s bearish.
I am not going to bother going into why I am bearish. Just read my posts from the last few weeks to truly understand why I am currently bearish.
So, I want to talk about something more important today – [...]
Calendar Is Light. Look For A Small Rally Into the Close. ECB Could Provide A Spark Thurs.
The calendar is very light and there aren't many market moving events scheduled this week. Stocks have tested the downside intraday and they have rallied back before the close. This pattern has developed in the last few days. We are caught in a range and the market is searching for its next catalyst. The news is generally positive. Rumor has it that Greece is getting closer and closer to a deal. European banks have been tapping the ECB and they are catching a bid. Bond auctions have gone well and Spain is even considering a syndicated offering.
Fed Speak and the ECB Should Provide A Small Bid. Quiet Week Ahead
This has the makings of a very quiet week. Earnings season is winding down and the economic releases are light. Stocks have good momentum, but the market is bumping up against major resistance. Greece has not reached an agreement with private investors and that is weighing on the market. Unions across the country are striking and that is making investors nervous. Greek officials are trying to draft austerity measures that would lay off 15,000 public sector workers by the end of 2012. The minimum wage would be cut by 20% and they are also trying to reduce pension benefits by 20%.
The News Is Light This Week and Stocks Will Try To Advance
Last week, the market broke out above resistance when the jobs report came in much better than expected. PMI's in Europe and Asia were also above estimates. This is a very quiet news week and the momentum should allow stocks to inch higher. Domestic economic conditions have been outpacing the rest of the world. ISM manufacturing and ISM services came in better than expected last week and GDP rose 2.8% in the preliminary reading. The optimism is growing. Credit concerns in Europe have subsided. The ECB provided a massive liquidity injection and interest rates have declined.
Strong Jobs Number and ISM Services Push Stocks Up To Major Resistance Level
Today, we might have gotten the catalyst the market has been looking for. First, the jobs number came in much better than expected. Next, ISM services jumped from 53 to 56.8. The economic news was excellent and the market gaped higher on the open. Unlike the price action during the last two weeks, stocks feel like they want to grind higher. The market is challenging a major resistance level at SPY 135 and it doesn't feel like it's going to back off. This week the PMI's in Europe and Asia were pretty good.
Some Interesting Probabilities Surrounding Payrolls
Will the beginning of the “anticipated” correction come tomorrow?
The Nonfarm Payroll report is often a market mover and I expect to see much of the same tomorrow.
The market is wound tight and typically when that occurs we are witness to a large directional move.
I expect, regardless of how positive (or negative) the report is tomorrow, [...]
On the Eve of Options Expiration…..
I am always amazed how large the opportunity to “make it big” factors into the great magnetism of the market. The belief that anyone, from any background can be successful and make tons of money has quite the allure. But, in all of this euphoria people neglect to think about all of those that failed [...]
Ignore the Noise. Trade Strategies Based off Probabilities
“What do you think about the latest economic report, data coming out of Europe, etc?”
That’s a question I often receive. My typical response, I don’t care. Okay, that may be a bit harsh, but it is true. For the most part I really don’t care about the daily news that flows in and out of [...]
The Right and Wrong Way to Approach Options Trading Strategies
A while back I had the pleasure to speak with a gentleman from a prominent newsletter service. It was interesting to see just how he traded options and how his newsletter service and others that he was affiliated with used options in their services.
As I suspected – he uses options irresponsibly in his service - as [...]

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Italian Bond Auction Could Be the First Speed Bump. Wait For SPY To Breach 125 - Then Buy Puts
The markets will be pretty quiet this week as many traders extend their holiday. Stocks jumped last week when we learned that European banks borrowed €498 billion from the ECB. They used the proceeds to pay down more expensive debt, fortify balance sheets and to purchase short-term sovereign debt. This temporarily soothed nerves. The ECB's balance sheet has grown to a level not seen since the peak of the financial crisis in 2008. Most analysts see this as the "bazooka" they were looking for to stabilize financial conditions.
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