Intraday Swings Leave Many with Whiplash as the Market Recovers Majority of Monday’s Losses
The Federal Reserve saved the day with its policy statement at 2:15pm Eastern Standard Time today. Although the initial reaction the statement was VERY negative stocks were so oversold a rally ensued pushing the market to close near the highs of the session. Early in the session saw stocks drop to fresh new lows, but buyers stepped up to help find positive territory by lunch time. Sellers took over prior to the Fed statement, but their efforts would be thwarted by buyers at the lows.
Fade To...Red?
This was a strange open. Everyone on the teevee was calling for the pop to fade. While I believe that a fade was obvious, I guess I am surprised we did fade because so many people called for it.
Sorry if that doesn't make sense but that so many people correctly predicted the fade is a surprise.
I sold one stock for large accounts right at the open.
The Disciplined Trader is a Profitable Trader
Click Here Now . . . The Disciplined Trader Ends August 03, 2011
Maybe you're asking yourself,
"How much is my lack of discipline REALLY effecting my trading results?"
I think you know the answer.
Thursday Tidbits
Two quick items this morning.
First up, I find it intriguing that PayPal, the former add-on/logical compliment, seems to be growing into being the primary business at eBay. It's bit early to expect the company to change its name to PayPal just yet but the revenue was just over $1 billion versus $2.76 billion for the entire company and I am quite certain it will change the name in a few years.
Employment and Stocks Over the Intermediate Term
...evidence from simple tests offers little support for a belief that monthly or quarterly changes in U.S. employment usefully predict intermediate-term U.S. stock market returns.
Selling Short Big Printer Company
Click Here to Review Different Stock Scanning Software
Saturday links: choice and boredom
The weekend is a great time to catch up on some of the reading you skipped during the week. We hope you enjoy this set of long-form links.
What do we really want from Google ($GOOG)? (NYRB)
GOOGLED :
For the first time in 6 years of posting Sentiment numbers, my template sabotaged me by repeating the numbers from the week before; some little worm in there did not update the template. Rest assured, the numbers this week (and for the previous week in the template) are correct ! I think!
Thursday 7atSeven: crazy perks
Thanks for checking in with us for seven links (give or take) at 7AM Eastern. Good luck out there.
Convertible bonds have had a bad June to-date. (FT)
Make money while you sleep!: overnight vs. intraday market returns. (Bespoke)
Guesstimates on June 20, 2011
September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1250-1265. I expect the drop from the May 2 high to end this week. My advancing issues oscillators are oversold and are showing bullish divergences. Sentiment is very bearish. A sustained swing up above the 1400 level will be the next significant development.
QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.
Desert island blogger quiz – our responses
Last week while we were on hiatus we asked a slew of independent bloggers a series of five questions. We were gratified by the responses and were happy people enjoyed them. We figured you might be interested in our answers as well.
Monday – What is your favorite finance/trading/investment book?
Short answer: Market Wizards by Jack Schwager
Weakness Continues as Fear Finally Appears in the Market
Yesterday’s action turned out to be a one day wonder as the market gave back all of yesterday’s gains and then some. Crude oil was a big loser dropping more than four dollars, fueled by weak economic data and issues in Greece sellers were out in full force. The downtrend continues as prices weren’t able to turn around as selling just continued to put pressure on stocks. Volume soared across the board as institutions were back out selling stock. Fear did creep back into the market as the VIX jumped almost 17%, but it remains well below levels seen in March.
Probability of Recession and Future Stock Returns
Some time ago, a reader suggested: “Political Calculations has a tool to ‘reckon the odds of U.S. recession in the next 12 months’ based on a formula developed by the Econobrowser from a paper entitled ‘The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions’ by the Federal Reserve Board’s Jonathan Wright.
Absence makes the linkfest grow stronger
For the first time in a very long time, actually ever, Abnormal Returns is going go on hiatus for the week. We have some fun stuff planned for later in the week but I thought I would point you in the direction of some other linkfests, primarily daily, you might check in on in the meantime. In no particular order:
Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns
Thanks for checking in with us this weekend. Here are the items our readers clicked most frequently on Abnormal Returns for the week ended Saturday, June 11th, 2011. The description is as it reads in the relevant linkfest.
The ultimate China fraud linkfest
We found a handful of China-related items this morning we thought we would publish in a standalone post.
The entire Chinese stock market is feeling the weight of fraud fears. (beyonbrics)
Muddy Waters Research is making some Chinese companies nervous. (Dealbook)
Notes on Variability of Stock Market Returns
How should the variability of stock market returns shape the outlooks of short-term traders and long-term investors? How strong is the tailwind of the general drift upward in stock prices? How powerful is the turbulence of variability? Does the tailwind ever overpower the turbulence?
Guesstimates on June 6, 2011
June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1288-1301. I am expecting an end to the drop from 1373 somewhere in the 1275-85 range. A sustained swing up above the 1400 level will be the next significant development.
QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.
Thursday screencast: poor substitutes
It is surprising to some people but individual investors have some advantages over institutional investors. However one area where individuals are at a disadvantage is in access to alternative asset classes. For instance institutions have access to private vehicles to invest in things like timberland. Another area where institutions are moving into is farmland, which has been increasing in value of late. ETF providers are launching all manner of agriculture-focused funds, but none of them will truly capture the returns of farmland itself.
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- 6Finding The Most Profitable Asia Stocks
- 6Wednesday 7atSeven: quiet complacency
- 4Guesstimates on February 8, 2012
- 4Asset Class Diversification Effectiveness Factors [PREMIUM]
- 4Wednesday links: dormant ideas
- 4Stocks Close in the Green Again; Uptrend continues
- 3Positive Earnings Reactions Continue To Outpace Negative Reactions
- 1Hussman on Recession Probabilities





