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54,000 US Jobs Lost Last Month

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The US Labor Report brought more discouraging employment news today as for the third month in a row, jobs continued to evaporate. In August, 54,000 jobs were lost, lifting overall unemployment to 9.6 percent from 9.5 percent.

The one bright note was the private sector created more jobs than expected during the month with 67,000 new positions filled. The net result however, was still negative adding further to worries that increasing unemployment could derail any recovery.

Source: Reuters

 
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4

How Election Outcomes Could Affect AUD and JPY

http://www.kathylien.com

If you have read the international papers, you may know that there are two political developments that is worth paying attention to.

 
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6

Very Good Non-Farm Payrolls Report

http://www.kathylien.com

I published this report on FX360.com this morning (if you haven’t read it already)

 
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1

Oil Dips Below $75 a Barrel

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Oil prices were off slightly as investors digested the latest US Employment Report, falling by 35 cents at $74.67 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Thursday, oil gained $1.11 to $75.02 a barrel.

Oil prices have traded between $70 and $80 for most of the past year as the global economy recovered from last year’s recession, but developed countries struggled to regain strong growth. U.S. crude and fuel inventories have remained high, suggesting the demand for fuel remains sluggish.

 
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4

U.K. Pound Still Has Struggles in Forex Trading

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Sterling in currency trading

The U.K. pound is still struggling overall in forex trading on the currency market. Earlier today, sterling saw a sell off in currency trading.

However, for now, the U.K. pound appears to be doing better. The better than expected payrolls data out of the U.S. appears to be helping high beta currencies as risk appetite returns.

 
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3

NFP or Russian Roulette anyone

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It’s like attending a bingo session. All eyes will be down waiting for the highly anticipated employment print this morning. Will this week’s ADP report translate into a much weaker jobs number? Will the stubbornly elevated weekly claims push the unemployment rate up two ticks? Will analyst’s consensus of a headline loss of -100k jobs and no growth in the private sector provide us with a non-event as we head into the ‘labor’ weekend? Expect liquidity to be thin as many New Yorkers skip out of town averting the storm ahead of the holiday. It’s another crap-shoot.

 
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6

Trading In Emerging/Exotic Currencies Increases

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The long wait is over! The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) has just released the results from its Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity, conducted in April 2010. The report contains a veritable treasure trove of data, perhaps enough to keep analysts busy until the next report is released in 2013. [Chart below courtesy of WSJ].

 
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3

ECB Raises Growth Forecast

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The European Central Bank lifted its growth prediction for the eurozone region to between 1.4 and 1.8 percent for this year, and for between 0.5 and 2.3 percent for next year.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the eurozone recovery has been supported by global growth and reflected “temporary domestic factors”.

He added, however, that “uncertainty still prevails”.

 
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6

NFP herding us to No Mans Land

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Better industrial data out of China and the surprising ISM print in the US has every, already confused trader, becoming ‘more lost’ in whatever convictions they have left. At least we have the NFP crap-shoot still to come, that is bound to surprise. We may give up all we have gained in a heart beat this week and we would be none the wiser! Interpreting trading strategies is like a new form of ‘ping-pong’, back and forth with risk appetite. This morning the EUR remains king and has managed to extend its gains in the wake of a well received French and Spanish auctions.

 
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4

CNBC Interview on Surge in FX Volume

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Here is a great interview featuring my colleague Boris Schlossberg talking about the surge in FX volume

 
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1

US Weekly Jobless Claims Fall to 472,000

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New claims for jobless benefits for the week ending August 28th fell by 6,000 to 472,000 compared to the previous week. Employment remains a concern as companies hold off on hiring on fears that the economy could slow further in the second half of the year.

“The rate of layoffs is still uncomfortably high,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York. “This continues to feed the unemployment rolls. We see no reason to expect an acceleration in consumer spending.”

 
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4

FX Trading Surge

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Daily currency volume Boris Schlossberg, director Of currency research GFT.

 
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1

Best Reason to Buy Euros?

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The best reason to buy euros is because this man likes ‘em! Premier Wen Jiabao, the leader of China said last night that China and Western Countries should work together to enhance the world’s confidence in the euro and the European Union’s economy. China will be working directly with Spain on this initiative as Wen invited Chinese investors to invest in Spain’s financial, renewable resources and electric cars industries, the report said.

 
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3

High Beta Currencies Head Higher in Forex Trading

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U.S. dollar down against sterling and euro

The U.S. dollar is down against the sterling and the euro in forex trading today. High beta currencies are moving higher as the global economic outlook gets a little boost from the positive manufacturing data out of China.

 
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6

Currencies Remain In Corrective Mode

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Kathy Lien, director of currency research at GFT Forex, on what to expect from the currency markets.

 
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5

Forex Trading Volume Officially Hits $4 Trillion

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This morning the Bank of International Settlements released its Triennial FX survey which is basically the market’s benchmark for forex volume and turnover. To no one’s surprise, volume has surged over the past 3 years. Between April 2007 and April 2010, global foreign exchange market increased by 20 percent from $3.3 trillion to $4.0 trillion, which is now the golden number for forex volume.

 
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1

ADP Payroll Report Finds Job Losses on the Increase

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The monthly ADP Employer Services survey shows that US employment fell by 10,000 during the month of August, the first monthly job loss since January. This flies in the face of a survey of economists that forecast a gain of 15,000 jobs.

 
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1

Manufacturing on the Increase in China

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For the first time in four months, China’s Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) recorded an increase rising to 51.7 in August from 51.2 in July. A number above 50 on the index indicates an increase in activity.

The latest result will ease concern that growth is waning in China which is seen as a vital component in leading the global economy to recovery.

Source: BBC News

 
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1

Lack of Confidence in the FED would never happen almost never

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Month end flow beats logic, even option expiries and market fix’s beat logic. Yesterday’s stronger US data wilted in its glory as individuals eager to accumulate EUR’s waited in the wings. Stronger manufacturing data out of China and Australia last night is yet to convince the market to go all-in before we get to see the employment data in the US. The market is nervous and lacks conviction proven by the trading strategies being employed thus far this week. Yesterday’s Fed minutes did not exude acute dissension amongst its members to the degree the market had been expecting.

 
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2

Chinese Yuan has Hardly Budged

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The frequency of my reports on the Chinese Yuan is admittedly much higher than it used to be. Why? Call it disbelief. More than two months have passed since China revalued its currency, and after a rapid 1% appreciation, the RMB has actually fallen back. Today, it stands only .5% higher against the Dollar compared to June 18. On a trade-weighted basis, it is actually 2.3% lower. What is going on?!

 
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